The 2023 NWSL Semifinals: Preview, Predictions, and How to Watch
The NWSL Semifinals are upon us, and while the seeding might not reflect this, you could argue that these are the four teams with the most talent and star power in the NWSL. There are a plethora of interesting storylines heading into this weekend. Can Portland defeat Gotham at home once again after doing so last month? Will the NWSL Shield curse continue with San Diego? Could this be Megan Rapinoe’s last match ever? Will Gotham and San Diego breakthrough as new franchises and make the final for the first time? There’s a lot to consider. Here’s a preview of the NWSL Semifinals. It’s going to be one for the history books.
Portland Thorns vs. Gotham FC: Sunday, November 5 at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Portland and Gotham are evenly matched on paper, but the Thorns benefit greatly from their home-field advantage. This will be the Thorns’ sixth time hosting an NWSL Semifinal, and they’ve gone 3-1 in those games. The one loss was after they finished first in the league, if you believe in the NWSL Shield curse like I do.
Last year, the Thorns finished second after spending much of the year in first and lost the Shield to the OL Reign. This year, the same happened, but it was the San Diego Wave who won the regular season trophy. Flying under the radar is better because there’s less pressure than being the top seed.
Gotham has come a long way from finishing dead last to making the playoffs this season. Juan Carlos Amorós has done an amazing job in turning Gotham around. While they have the talent on the wings with Midge Purce and Lynn Williams, the one issue this team has had is scoring goals consistently.
They went out and added World Champion Esther Gonzalez of Spain, and she’s given this attack a much-needed lift with her finishing ability. These two teams split the season series, with Gotham winning 2-1 at Red Bull Arena and the Thorns won on October 7, 1-0 at home.
The biggest question mark of this game is: how close is Sophia Smith to being 100% fit? The NWSL Golden Boot winner started the second USWNT match against Colombia but only played the first half. How cautious will the Thorns be with their superstar? Obviously, Portland wants to win, but will they let Smith go at least 60 minutes or more without risking further injury against a Gotham team that is second in the league in most fouls committed? Gotham likes to play physically and will make Smith feel their presence the entire time she’s out there.
Even if Smith doesn’t play her best, the Thorns are a deep enough team to win without relying on her. Morgan Weaver has proven she will pounce on any opportunity given to her. Gotham has to play a perfect game at a championship level if they want to break through and overcome Portland’s playoff dominance. The Thorns are the league’s most successful organization for a reason, and it’s very difficult to pick against them against a Gotham team that doesn’t have nearly as much playoff experience as they do.
Prediction: Thorns win 2-1
San Diego Wave vs. OL Reign: Sunday, November 5 at 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
San Diego has built something special in an incredibly short period. Making the playoffs in year one and winning the NWSL Shield in year two is an amazing feat. Jill Ellis, Casey Stoney, and the Wave front office have had a plan from day one and executed it flawlessly. They have a strong combination of stars, veterans, and young talent who play together as a team. They navigated the World Cup and managed to make a late push to finish first. What’s their reward for getting the top spot? A loaded OL Reign squad eager to bring home a title for Megan Rapinoe in her final season.
The OL Reign is the classic example of a team in the top three in the league in talent and makes the playoffs every year (this is their fifth straight appearance) but hasn’t been able to win the big game. Could this finally be their year? Of all the teams the OL could’ve seen in the semifinals, the Wave would have to be their choice.
During the regular season, the Reign won all four matchups against the Wave. Beating a team four times in one season is astounding. The Wave will have more than enough film and time with the bye week to try and figure out a different game plan for this matchup because nothing they’ve tried has worked. Their last matchup was the most lopsided, where the Wave had 60% possession, but the Reign had more shots and scored a penalty to take the win.
They didn’t even have their best lineup out on the field during that game; with Jess Fishlock, Megan Rapinoe, and Sofia Huerta in that, it’s an even tougher proposition. The Wave has a great center-back combo with Naomi Girma and Abby Dalhkemper but can be exploited on the wings, which is where Rapinoe and Huerta can tI’mve.
I’m picking the OL Reign to set up the Cascadia Rivalry against Portland Thorns in the final, which would be the best game possible.
Prediction: OL Reign win 5-3 in PKs (1-1)
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