The Race to the NWSL Playoffs: Where the 12 Teams Stand
Two regular season games remain in the NWSL, and the playoff race is closer than ever. Only three points are separating the fourth place and seventh place; all it takes is one slip-up in the remaining two games, and a team that’s been in the top 6 all year could not make the playoffs at all. I’ll go team by team and break down each team’s chances of making the playoffs based on their remaining games. San Diego clinched a spot last weekend by beating Portland, so we’re leaving them out of this. Here’s a review of the postseason scenarios in the race to the NWSL Playoffs.
Portland Thorns (Remaining Opponents: Gotham FC, Angel City), Points: 32
The Thorns’ outlook is simple: they need to win at least one of their two games, and they’re in. If they draw in both games, they’d still be barring a miracle from Orlando, who would have to win both games by seven goals or more in each game. Now, if they lose both or lose one and draw the other, it would leave the door open for Orlando to sneak in if they were to win their final two games, putting Orlando on 34 points and Portland on 33. With that being said, if I had to guess, I’d say Portland’s probability to make the playoffs should be around 90% or higher because they’d need to lose, and Orlando would need to win both games.
Gotham FC (Remaining Opponents: Portland Thorns, Kansas City Current), Points: 30
Two fewer points for Gotham make a big difference in the table because they not only have to worry about Orlando, but Houston and Angel City are in striking distance, and Louisville has an outside chance to catch them because of the same goal difference right now.
Gotham has two tough games coming up. They play the Thorns in Portland, who haven’t lost two in a row at home in the league this season. Next is Kansas City, who will not lay down and give up an easy win in the last game of the season. Two wins or one win and one draw over Portland or Kansas City would be enough for Gotham to clinch a spot, but a loss and draw or two losses or even two draws in both games would leave the door open for Orlando or Houston to leapfrog them with two wins in their last two games.
North Carolina Courage (Remaining Opponents: San Diego Wave, Washington Spirit), Points: 29
The Courage were at the top of the table a few weeks ago and have fallen to fourth in the standings. Perhaps the Challenge Cup victory has played a factor in their lack of form down the stretch.
They’re in a good position with these last two matchups. With the Wave clinching their spot, will they go for the NWSL Shield or rest their stars to prepare for the playoffs? If they rest their players, the Courage could capitalize on that. If not, they have the second game against a Washington Spirit team that needed a late game-winner from Trinity Rodman to beat Kansas City.
The Courage might not be in the best form, but I’m not picking against them to drop out of the top six after they shockingly missed out last year. No way it happens two years in a row.
Washington Spirit (Remaining Opponents: OL Reign, North Carolina Courage), Points: 29
Trinity Rodman’s goal saved the Spirit from an even more stressful end to the season. If Rodman didn’t score, the Spirit would be on the outside looking in. They’ve got two tough teams desperate to hold onto their playoff spots, too. The OL Reign would pass them with a win in the next game, making it arguably the game of the week on Matchday 21.
If the Spirit wins both their games, they’re certainly in, but a win and a draw, two draws, or two losses allows for Orlando or Houston to eliminate them if either team wins their two games.
OL Reign (Remaining Opponents: Washington Spirit, Chicago Red Stars), Points: 28
The OL Reign looked much better in the first half against North Carolina, and they did incredibly well to keep the game at 1-1 for the entire second half after Alana Cook’s red card.
The Spirit has to go to Seattle to get the win, which means the Reign have to capitalize on home-field advantage. A win wouldn’t clinch the playoff spot, but a win or draw against Chicago would definitely clinch a spot. Chicago has been playing better as of late, but it’s still a better matchup for the Reign compared to playing some of the other teams that are hotter right now.
Two losses would be catastrophic for the OL Reign because Orlando, Houston, Angel City, Louisville, and Chicago could take their place for the sixth and final playoff spot with two wins.
Orlando Pride (Remaining Opponents: Racing Louisville, Houston Dash), Points: 28
Orlando is in control of their destiny because they’re in great form, and they’re playing two teams that aren’t in the top six right now. The Pride were slightly fortunate to beat Angel City in LA, but a win is a win, and another victory would put significant pressure on the teams in the playoff spots.
If the Pride beat Louisville and the Angel City-Houston game ends in a draw, they’ll pull clear of those two teams going into the last game. And, if any of the teams above them were to lose the next game, Orlando would clinch a spot with a draw against Houston in their last game. If they lose to Louisville, they’d need the OL Reign, Spirit, Courage, and Gotham to at least lose or draw their first game, which is highly unlikely. But then again, crazier things have happened. There are numerous permutations as to how this will go.
Houston Dash (Remaining Opponents: Angel City, Orlando Pride), Points: 26
Suddenly, Houston has two wins in a row and an outside shot of getting into the playoffs. If they win their last two games, they’d get to 32 points, but they’d need the teams above them to lose or draw their remaining games.
Their next match against Angel City essentially becomes an elimination game where the winner still has a chance. All the teams above them in the table will be hoping for a draw because if any of the teams from third through seventh win, it would knock out Houston.
Angel City (Remaining Opponents: Houston Dash, Portland Thorns), Points: 25
For Angel City, the objective is clear: a draw does them no good. They have to win their last two games in order to grab a spot. If they win and draw, they’d need a miracle with either the OL Reign, Courage, or Gotham to lose their remaining games and open up that last spot because there are too many teams ahead of them.
If they win both and get to 31 points, they can sneak in with the aforementioned teams picking up a draw and a loss, but that’s a lot of teams that have to lose. It might be too little too late for Angel City.
Racing Louisville (Remaining Opponents: Orlando Pride, San Diego Wave), Points: 24
Louisville can only catch four teams mathematically with two wins in two games. Their goal difference changes the scenario for them. If the OL Reign managed to draw their last two games, Louisville would get the sixth spot over OL Reign. If the Spirit loses one and draws one game, they’d also be able to pass Washington. Gotham and North Carolina would have to lose their two remaining games if they were to catch either of those teams. Still, the loss to Chicago in their last game was a killer. Otherwise, they’d have a better chance, like Orlando and Houston do.
Chicago Red Stars (Remaining Opponents: Kansas City Current, OL Reign), Points: 24
Chicago’s goal difference is horrendous at negative 16, making the scenarios clear. Win their two games and hope that everyone from fourth place or below loses both of their games.
Kansas City Current (Remaining Opponents: Chicago Red Stars, Gotham FC), Points: 22
Kansas City has been eliminated from playoff contention after losing a heartbreaker to the Washington Spirit with Trinity Rodman’s late game-winning goal.
Featured image via @orlpride on Instagram
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