What to Watch For in the NWSL: Decision Day

Decision Day in the NWSL has finally arrived. It’s come down to the last week of the season, and the remaining four playoff spots are still up for grabs. Eight teams are left, and half will experience the ecstasy of making the postseason, while the other half experience the agony of missing out. All six games will be played at the exact same time on Sunday, 5:00 PM ET/2:00 PM PT, and all six games will be streamed on Paramount+. This will be an incredible day of soccer, with teams shuffling in and out of position as the day goes on. Here’s what to watch for during Decision Day and the remaining playoff scenarios.

Washington Spirit vs. North Carolina Courage

Courage clinch with:

• Win
• Draw + (Gotham loss OR Reign loss/draw OR Pride AND Angel City fail to make up GD)
• (Note: Due to current GD, Courage realistically clinchs with draw)
• Any three of: Gotham loss, Reign loss/draw while maintaining GD, Pride loss/draw, Angel City loss/draw, Louisville loss/draw, Louisville win while maintaining GD

Spirit clinch with:

• Win
• Draw + any two of: Reign loss/draw, /Pride loss/draw, Angel City loss/draw, Gotham loss/Gotham draw with makeup of GD
• Any three of: Reign loss, Pride loss, Angel City loss, Louisville loss/draw

These two teams have been above the playoff line the entire season, which would make it a shock if one of the two were to miss out. A draw might be beneficial for both teams, but no one wants to leave their destiny in the hands of the rest of the league. The Spirit defeated the Courage early on in the regular season, but the Courage came back and beat the Spirit twice in the Challenge Cup. This is the perfect opportunity for Washington to settle the score.

Thanks to Trinity Rodman, they’ve created a little more momentum coming into this game,. North Carolina still has not found a way to turn it around since winning the Challenge Cup. Everything is set up for the Spirit to send the Courage packing with a loss. All eyes should be on Trinity Rodman, but look out for Ashley Hatch. The striker hasn’t scored since August 27th. She’s due for a clutch goal. The Spirit appears to have stopped the skid they were on and should get this done at home.

Gotham FC vs. Kansas City Current

Gotham clinch with:

• Win
• Draw + (Reign loss OR Pride loss/draw OR Angel City loss/draw)
• Draw + Pride failure to makeup GD
• Any three of: Spirit/Courage non-draw with loser behind on GD, Reign loss/draw while making up GD, Pride loss/draw, Angel City loss/draw, Louisville loss/draw

This is a scary game for Gotham which is a better road team than the home team. Kansas City played spoiler last weekend, knocking out Chicago and scoring six goals in the process. Clearly, they aren’t going down with a fight and will bring that same heat into Red Bull Arena. The last time these two played, the Current won 2-0, and it was a Debinha special, with the Brazilian scoring both goals. Gotham hasn’t been in good form. They’ve lost their last two games.

Now they have the added pressure of needing a win or leaving their hands in the fate of everyone else. Kansas City has nothing to lose or any pressure on them to get a result, which means they’ll play as free as ever. The 6-3 result from last week is the biggest indicator of that, and I like Kansas City to at least get a win or get a draw with Gotham. Gotham is my pick to get beat and leave the door open for any one of the teams below them to get in. Keep an eye on Kristen Hamilton. She didn’t score last week, but I think she will play a huge role in this one against Gotham.

Orlando Pride vs. Houston Dash

Orlando clinches with:

• Win + (Gotham loss OR Reign loss/draw OR Angel City loss/draw OR (Gotham draw OR Angel City draw with either making up GD)
• Houston clinches with:
• Win + Reign loss with the makeup of GD + Angel City loss/draw + Louisville loss/draw)

This might be the best match of the weekend because both sides will be extra prepared and ready to win after they both suffered devastating losses last weekend. Orlando blew a 2-0 lead that would’ve firmly put them in the driver’s seat going into Decision Day. Houston could’ve used the extra point rather than a late stoppage-time winner from Angel City. Houston beat Orlando 2-0 earlier this season, but Orlando has been in slightly better form. The Dash won the two games prior to last week’s loss to put themselves in this position, but Orlando has been the better side this season. Factor in that the Pride have won three of their last four games in the league at home, which means they’ve got a great chance to do this. This could be Marta’s last push for a trophy. Expect her to link up well with the rookie of the year candidate Messiah Bright.

Chicago Red Stars vs. OL Reign

OL Reign clinches with:

• Win
• Draw + any three of: Gotham loss, Spirit loss, Pride loss/draw, Angel City loss/draw, Louisville loss/draw, Courage loss with makeup of GD
• Louisville loss/draw, Angel City loss/draw while maintaining GD + (Pride loss OR maintaining GD over whoever finishes on 29 points from Pride win/draw)

The interesting question in this matchup is how will Chicago come out and play after getting eliminated last week? Will they play like the Current did against them and put their best foot forward, or will they use this as a chance to let their younger players play in a big match? The last time these two played was a 5-2 drubbing by the OL Reign. Expect this matchup to be much closer, and Chicago might end up playing spoiler in the end. The Reign have lost their four games on the road. add in the huge emotional dump from Megan Rapinoe’s last-ever home game last week, and you’ve got a chance for an upset here. The Reign have to find a way to score goals. They’ve only scored three total in their last six league games. Chicago just scored three in a loss last week. It might be a huge shock, but the Reign haven’t looked good in the second half of the season. Expect a bounce back from Chicago and for Bianca St. Georges to get a few chances down the right side in this game.

Angel City vs. Portland Thorns

Angel City clinch with:

• Win + (Gotham loss (or draw with makeup of GD) OR Reign loss/draw OR Pride loss/draw (or Pride win with makeup of GD))
• Portland clinches NWSL Shield with:
• Win
• San Diego Wave loss
• Draw + Wave draw

These two teams always seem to have the most exciting and dramatic games when they play each other. The Thorns have pulled out a draw and a win late in stoppage time against Angel City. Remember Bella Bixby’s goal to salvage the draw earlier this season? Angel City has to have some luck turn their way, and it did last week when they were able to catch Houston sleeping and countered with Savannah McCaskill’s late winner.

The Thorns have clinched, and Sophia Smith is still recovering from her injury. This is the best chance Angel City will have to get their revenge and even the series at 2-2 for this season. BMO Stadium should be packed to the brim, and they’ve been building toward this playoff appearance. Angel City wins at home and gets into one of the last playoff spots.

San Diego Wave vs. Racing Louisville

San Diego clinches NWSL Shield with:

• Win + Thorns draw/loss
• Draw + Thorns loss + makeup GD
• Louisville clinches with:
• Win + any three of: Gotham loss, Spirit loss, Reign loss/draw, Angel City loss/draw, Courage loss with makeup of GD

Louisville is hanging on by a thread and needs the most to happen in order to make the playoffs. On top of that, they haven’t done well away from home, and San Diego is one of the better home teams in the league. These two teams played to a 0-0 draw in Louisville, and if they can’t win at home against San Diego, they don’t have a great chance to win on the road. The Wave are in the running for the NWSL Shield and will do everything they can to get a win and get that trophy in front of their fans. Local San Diego products like Kyra Carusa and Sierra Enge have given the Wave a huge lift and will likely do so in this game as well. The Wave are deeper and more talented than Louisville, and they’re at home. San Diego is my pick to win the Shield and end Louisville’s season. 

Featured image via @weareangelcity on Instagram

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